event:
The four parts of the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on December 5, and publicly solicited opinions from the public on the oil product tax reform plan. Program contents: (1) Cancel road maintenance fees, highway transportation management fees, highway passenger and freight surcharges, waterway maintenance fees, water transportation management fees and water transport passenger and freight surcharges, and gradually cancel the approved government reimbursement of secondary roads Charges; (2) Gasoline Consumption Tax Unit tax increases from 0.2 yuan per liter to 1 yuan; diesel oil per liter from 0.1 yuan to 0.8 yuan.
Comment
Plan differs from market expectations
In this program, the fuel tax is incorporated into the refined oil consumption tax, which is replaced by the production process, and the specific amount is calculated instead of ad valorem. The tax amount is equivalent to gasoline 0.8 yuan/liter and diesel oil 0.7 yuan/liter, which is equivalent to Tax rate is lower than gasoline 15% (No. 93), diesel is lower than 11% (No. 0), significantly lower than the previously rumored fuel tax rate of 30% or 50%, and the cancellation fee is also extended from road maintenance fees to roads There are six expenses such as road maintenance fees and highway transportation management fees (related expenses for the auto industry include three expenses such as road maintenance fees, highway transportation management fees and highway passenger and freight surcharges).
Policy Lido Dazhong Bus and Heavy Truck Industry
We have calculated the changes in the annual operating expenses of various models of Beijing, Shandong, Jiangxi, and other provinces and cities, and the results are shown in Table 1-3. The results show that after the implementation of the policy, the above-mentioned provinces and cities, large passengers, passengers, light passengers, heavy truck operators, and small-displacement passenger cars (1.0 liters of displacement) each save 4.5-5.4 million yuan and 2.8-3.5 million yuan annually in expenditure. , 1.2-1.5 million yuan, 1-1.8 million yuan and 360 yuan, among which the cost savings effect of large and medium bus companies is very significant (non-transport industry); if it takes into account the cancellation of the When passenger surcharges are also cancelled, Daqing and Zhongke operating companies save 0.7 to 15,000 yuan per year, and 0 to 55,000 yuan per year, while light-bus companies increase annual expenses by about 0.1 million yuan; The annual cost expenditure of light-car operating companies and 2.0-3.0 liters of displacement cars increased by 0.3-0.4 million yuan, 0.1-0.2 million yuan, and 0.1-0.2 million yuan respectively, and the increase in expenses was not significant. Therefore, we believe that the effect of this policy is indeed more neutral and has little impact on the passenger vehicle industry. However, the policy has clearly benefited the large and medium bus industry, followed by the heavy truck industry.
The related beneficial listed companies are Yutong Bus, Jinlong Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, China Heavy Vehicle, Weichai Power, etc.;
The policy portfolio highlights the government’s intention to support the auto industry. Although the policy is still in the opinion solicitation period, due to the expectation of a more neutral policy, we believe that there will be no suspense and that the government will implement the refined oil pricing mechanism. In the reform, the series of policy combinations such as the reduction of oil price expectations and the encouragement of auto consumption credits highlights the government's support strategy and determination for the auto industry, and will fluctuate some of the industry's adjustments.
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