Market participants said that although it is expected that the slowdown in domestic demand and a strong bearish atmosphere will drag down crude oil imports, considering that the government will increase crude oil reserves at a low price, it is expected that the import volume of crude oil will still maintain growth in November. Guo Haitao, assistant to the director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center, said on December 23 that according to the information he obtained, the current inventory of national crude oil reserves is at a high level.
According to data from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, from January to October, the apparent consumption of Chinese crude oil (domestic production plus imports, minus exports) grew by 6.1% year-on-year, and from January to November, this The growth rate has slowed to 5.8%. Reuters estimates that apparent oil demand in November fell by about 3.5% year-on-year, the first decline in nearly three years.
Paul Ting, an independent analyst who tracks China’s oil trends, also said in a recent report that the rate at which US oil consumption has not seen since the 1980’s has dropped dramatically, while China’s oil demand has shrunk even faster than the United States. Rapidly. Guo Haitao said that judging from the trend, crude oil demand will still be in the downtrend channel, and the situation in the first and second quarter of next year may be the worst. “The demand for oil is inextricably linked to the overall state of the real economy,†and the slowdown in domestic exports has seriously affected diesel sales. The previous four quarters were originally peak seasons for commodity exports, and factories were rushing to work. The fourth quarter was supposed to be the month when demand for industrial diesel rose relatively. However, due to the large number of domestic small and medium-sized factories shutting down and reducing exports, domestic diesel industry demand has been reduced by 20% to 30% during the year. In other words, the lack of factory demand support, the domestic demand for diesel in the fourth quarter of the previous year was no longer a blowout. .
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