The car companies are accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles. Will new energy vehicles become "refills" for traditional cars?
During this time, many major news in the automobile circle are closely related to "double credit".
On August 22nd, Ford Motor announced that it would establish a joint venture with Anhui Zhongtai Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereafter referred to as "Zhongtai Automobile") to manufacture and sell pure electric vehicles. The joint venture will each hold 50% of the shares.
On August 29th, Nissan-Renault stated that they are forming a new joint venture with Dongfeng Motor, EGT, to design and manufacture electric vehicles in Shiyan, Hubei. Renault and Nissan will hold 25% and 25% of the shares of Yijiete. Dongfeng will hold the remaining 50%.
On August 29, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers organized the "Two Conferences" spirit promotion meeting. There is unconfirmed news that the "double credit" approach may be delayed for one year. Earlier, the Automobile Manufacturers Association of Europe, Japan, and South Korea and the US Automobile Policy Committee wrote a letter to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, hoping to postpone the implementation or relaxation of the "double-credit" method. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also called for postponement of implementation.
Prior to this, on June 1st, Volkswagen and JAC had established a joint venture company for new energy vehicles. It is reported that there are many domestic and international car companies that are accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles.
Many netizens are skeptical:
@Dawang Wangfu: "Is the new energy car a fragrant wolfberry, or is the new energy car's points a citron?"
@God's general existence: "Isn't the qualification of grabbing a new energy car company to make up for your own traditional car?"
......
Seeing so many users' in-depth questions, the question and answer brother really had a good look at this "double-integration" approach.
Note:
"Double-integration" approach - On June 13, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Council's Office of Legal Affairs issued the "Measures for the concurrent management of the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle companies and new energy vehicle integration points (draft for solicitation of opinions)" to determine passenger vehicles. The company's average fuel consumption points (hereinafter referred to as CAFC) and new energy passenger vehicle points (hereinafter referred to as NEV) are in parallel with the double-point management policy, referred to as the "double-credit" approach.
"Two sessions" - June 23 Vice Premier of the State Council Zhang Gaoli presided over the new energy automotive overall planning innovation and development meeting, and on July 4th the State Council Deputy Prime Minister Ma Kai supported the promotion of new energy automotive symposium.
New Energy Vehicles - According to the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Vehicles' Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integrity (Draft for Comment)", the new energy vehicles referred to in this article refer only to new energy vehicles, including plug-in vehicles. Hybrid (including incremental) passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars, and fuel cell passenger cars.
Traditional vehicles - According to the "Measures for the parallel management of passenger car companies' average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle integration points (draft for solicitation)", the traditional car referred to in this article refers only to traditional energy passenger vehicles, including those capable of burning gasoline. Passenger cars with diesel or gas fuel (including non-plug-in hybrid passenger cars).
The car companies are accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles. Will new energy vehicles become the "refills" for traditional cars?
Points, points, points, the lifeblood of car companies
I remember when I was in school, the teacher always threatened "parts, minutes, points, and students' lifebloods in the ear of the little friends. Everything else was false. The college entrance exams only rely on scores to speak."
Today, seeing these car companies under the "dual-integration" approach, Q & A suddenly feels a sense of déjà vu - what planning, what technology, what vision for the future, put it first, solve the points problem first, and ensure the current tradition. The sales of the car will not be affected.
On August 29, the “Two Conferences†convened by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that the formal “double-integration†approach will be announced in the near future. According to the contents of the second draft of the consultation paper released on June 13th, Question and Answers, what is the key to the "double-integration" approach?
1. The CAFC points are to be up to the standard and the NEV points must be up to the standard.
(Comment: Both standards are tightening.)
2. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles for passenger car companies should reach 8%, 10%, and 12%, respectively.
(Comment: If the news from yesterday's meeting is true, then the start time may be delayed by one year, but the ratio does not seem to change.)
3. CAFC points can be carried forward (converted within three years) or transferred among related companies. NEV points can be freely traded but cannot be carried forward.
4. There are four ways to offset CAFC negative credits: CAFC positive points carried forward by the company; NEV positive points of the company; CAFC positive points transferred between related companies; NEV positive points purchased from other companies.
To offset negative NEV points, only NEV positive points can be purchased from other passenger car companies. It can only be used in the same year and must not be resold.
(Comment: "The landlord's family does not have surplus food," CAFC is scoring too precious, or keep it for the rest. The rest, you can only play the idea of ​​NEV points.)
5. If there is negative credit for the CAFC, the unpaid passenger vehicle company and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will temporarily suspend the application of new product announcements or mandatory certifications that do not meet the requirements of the CAFC standard. (Comment: New products that do not meet the standard will not be given a "life permit.")
There are negative scores on NEV. For unpaid passenger car companies, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has suspended the production and import of some of its conventional cars. Until the reduction of the traditional car (as compared with the previous year) can offset the amount of negative points. (Comment: Really doing this, I am afraid that you will not build a car this year.)
Although the above five articles cannot summarize all the complicated "dual-integration" methods, they are the core of them - integral compensation and transactions.
Everything is turning around "points." It is not difficult for us to understand why multinational car companies need to quickly deploy the domestic auto market; why the public want to joint venture with JAC, Ford should have a joint venture with Zotye, and Nissan Renault should cooperate with Dongfeng, why the new passenger vehicle company with new energy background suddenly Gained vitality...
From the perspective of the “dual-integration†approach, it is clear that the purpose is to guide the auto industry and passenger car companies to accelerate the increase in investment in new energy vehicles, launch products, and conduct sales, use policies and regulations to force companies to quickly Step away.
In April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 2016 CAFC situation of passenger cars. Among the 95 domestic passenger car companies and 27 imported passenger car companies, there are 43 car companies that exceed the CAFC. Most of them may need to use their own or other company's NEV positive scores to compensate if they follow the "double score" rule.
The question is: of the 43 companies, how many new energy vehicles can be built or imported? How many NEV positive points contributed by new energy vehicles can be used for compensation? With the tightening of standards, the number of vehicles exceeding the standard will not increase in the future. ?
The Q&A believes that under the promotion of policies, domestic new energy vehicles will inevitably develop at a rapid rate, and the production and sales volume will continue to rise. However, at the same time, many problems will inevitably be encountered.
It's getting harder and harder to integrate while SUV is booming
Since CAFC is getting more and more difficult to obtain integral points, according to the logic of CAFC regulations, car companies should focus on the development of small-displacement, energy-saving models, and new energy vehicles. This is true in the past few years under the policy of halving the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles of 1.6L and below. However, the changes in the auto market are not based on this idea.
In the first half of this year, under the influence of multiple factors such as the halving of the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles, the domestic auto market fell into a slight increase. From January to July, the overall sales of automobiles increased by only 4.1%. However, at the same time, it does not enjoy policy support, and SUVs that do not have superior fuel economy are still maintaining high growth. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to July this year, SUVs sold a total of 5.216 million vehicles, an increase of 17% year-on-year. At this rate, by the end of this year, SUVs are expected to exceed 10 million and surpass the sedan to become the first automotive category.
The most intuitive experience came from the Chengdu Auto Show. According to media reports, at the Chengdu auto show, major manufacturers brought in nearly 70 new cars. According to incomplete statistics, the SUV is no less than 39 models. Among them, there are no shortage of car prices.
For auto companies, the traditional energy SUV is too hot. This market cannot only be lost, but it is still not enough. No matter whether it is a joint-venture car company, an independent car company or an imported car company, it is constantly introducing new products.
"Double-integration" approach to car companies is a headache, the increasing amount of traditional SUV contribution to CAFC positive integration will become smaller and smaller, and even become negative integration, and 1.6L and below sales of small-displacement cars Affected by the subsidy and retreat, the growth rate has decreased and even declined. The contribution to the CAFC's positive points has also gradually declined. NEV becomes the only choice for integral compensation.
It can be said that the more traditional SUVs are, the higher the NEV positive transaction cost will be. Traditional car companies will become increasingly keen to find new energy vehicles for joint ventures. In the future, if news of Ford’s joint venture in the construction of a new energy vehicle is found, we need not be overwhelmed. Because of the promotion of policies, there will inevitably be people thinking about shortcuts. As for whether they will devote themselves to new energy vehicles in the future, they can only look at the action.
Subsidy, limit line, oil price, demand side policy how to solve
"Can a new energy vehicle become a 'slotter' for a conventional car?" Many netizens are very concerned about this issue.
Under the “double-integration†approach, is the car company really dry or fake? Is it just for scoring, coping with assessments, or is it fancy for the long-term market and strategic investment? The question and answer believes that any person will have, and there is no way to avoid fish in troubled waters. . The key point is that the purpose of policy pull should be to build the market, activate the market, standardize the market, and form the internal driving force for self-development.
The "double-integration" approach is a key policy for the development of the new energy automotive industry, and its importance is unquestionable.
However, relying solely on the "double-integration" approach, it is too difficult to build a healthy, mature new energy automobile market in China. Because it is a policy and regulation on the supply side, the activation and improvement of the policy on the demand side requires more efforts and wisdom from the entire industry and society as a whole.
At present, the new energy automobile market has just started and has not yet formed a strong endogenous demand. There are still huge gaps in the areas of technical performance, price, use, used cars, recycling, and disposal of used batteries. The demand side policy design and market development are more important and should not be ignored.
The subsidy of new energy vehicles, restrictions on traditional vehicles, and high oil prices are the three key factors in whether the new energy vehicle market can start on a large scale. However, these three problems are currently very problematic. Subsidies are declining, and restrictions are not promoted. Oil prices cannot reach the critical point of switching consumption.
At the end of 2016, the four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. It is clear that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% year-on-year until 2020. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, statistics show that in 2016, 517,000 new energy vehicles were produced and 507,000 vehicles were sold, an increase of 5.17% and 53% over the same period of the previous year. From January to July this year, a total of 251,000 new energy vehicles were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%.
In contrast, sales growth of new energy vehicles this year has significantly reduced. Some people think that the decline in consumer subsidies for new energy vehicles is a huge blow to consumers. This slowdown is a direct testimony. Although previous fraudulent claims have cast a shadow on the subsidy policy, although today's subsidy policy is not the most perfect one, there is no doubt about its enormous role in nurturing the new energy auto market. With subsidies, consumer acceptance of new energy vehicle prices, use, and maintenance will increase significantly. However, in a short period of three years, it was difficult to achieve the goal of retaining consumers through gradual declining subsidies and activating the market.
In addition, the restricted means is a mandatory regulation, and Beijing's case is sufficient to prove that as long as there is enough willingness, the government can create market demand through administrative means. However, it is clear that the restricted line cannot be promoted nationwide.
The last is the price of oil. The key to traditional vehicles lies in the price of oil. Every energy crisis will prompt many people to switch to energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles. However, today, in the short term, we do not see the possibility of soaring oil prices.
These circumstances indicate that the market cultivation of new energy vehicles still has a long way to go. If we say that "double integration" is on the supply side and "pushing" the industry forward, then is it time for us to seriously study the demand? Is it right? There should also be some systematic and standing on the demand side? What measures do you take to "pull" the market?
At the “Two Conferences†spirit held on August 29, we were pleased to hear that the government’s relevant ministries and committees have done a lot of work to promote new energy vehicle technology innovation, improve performance indicators, reduce manufacturing costs, and optimize the use of the environment. .
These are indeed very important, but the question and answer brother would also like to add that if a new energy vehicle wants to become a market scent, it will not be seen as a “triple replacement†for traditional cars. This is also to create conditions for the "double-integration" approach to produce good results.
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