Since mid-January of this year, due to the tension in the Middle East in North Africa, the international oil price has been rising rapidly. Especially after the conflict in Libya, an important oil-producing country in North Africa, has escalated, market fears have aggravated the rise in oil prices. On Thursday (24th), the New York market oil price exceeded US$103/barrel in the intraday session, and the London market oil price reached a maximum of US$119.79 per barrel. Data show that the New York Mercantile Exchange's April light sweet crude oil futures prices closed at 97.88 US dollars a barrel this week, up 13.55% throughout the week. The North Sea Brent crude oil futures market for April delivery in London this week closed at 112.14 US dollars a barrel, up 9.38% for the entire week.
The turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East has triggered a “panic premium†effect on the oil market, pushing up oil prices by 15 to 20 US dollars. If the conflict continues, this premium effect will increase.
It is worth noting that the continued high oil prices will increase the cost of business operations and consumer life, and trigger inflation that will hinder the global economic recovery. Analysts believe that a sharp rise in oil prices will bring stagflation risks to the global economy. Once the cost rises dramatically and cause global inflation, the world economy will probably “double bottom out†and new financial turbulence will emerge, which will cause macroeconomic policies to face huge challenges for countries. . Deutsche Bank said that oil price breakthrough of 120 US dollars per barrel will become the turning point of world economic growth. By then, the proportion of oil production in the global economy will increase to more than 5.5%.
For advanced economies that are plagued by debt and unemployment, the cost pressures brought about by rising oil prices will restrain consumption and combat the unreliable economic recovery. Goldman Sachs Group economists recently pointed out in a forecast report that every 10 dollars increase in oil prices means that the U.S. economic growth rate has dropped by 0.2 percentage points. In Europe, economists have warned that an increase in oil prices by 10 U.S. dollars will lead to a 0.5 percentage point slowdown in the euro zone economy. With the sovereign debt crisis still not fully resolved, the oil price factor will make the ECB face tougher choices in formulating monetary policy. For emerging economies that have recovered rapidly from the financial crisis, imported inflationary pressures caused by rising commodity prices such as crude oil have also made it more difficult for these economies to implement macroeconomic controls and brought new hidden dangers to economic growth.
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