New energy vehicle power battery breakthrough requires 5-10 years technical problems to be solved

The new energy automobile industry is still struggling with stones.

The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning"), which was originally scheduled for release at the end of 2011, was still under consideration after the most recent meeting of the State Council. “Because the planning involves some unavoidable issues in terms of technology, market, and mode of operation, it has not yet been released.” Peng Hongbing, Director of the Electronic Infrastructure Division of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently stated at the Global New Energy Vehicle Conference.

The pilot performance is not satisfactory. “The new energy automobile market in China has encountered some difficulties in 2011, but we believe that there will be a continuous growth in the next five to ten years. The possibility of more than 30 million will be very large. Around 2015, it should be The first round of the industrialization of new energy vehicles was ushered in.” On January 8, Ouyang Minggao, head of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, stated at the 2012 China Automotive Market Research Summit Forum.

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that: In 2011, vehicle manufacturers produced 8,368 new energy vehicles, including 5,655 pure electric vehicles and 2,713 hybrids; 8,159 new energy vehicles were sold, including 5,579 pure electric vehicles, and hybrid vehicles. 2580 vehicles. China Automobile Association expects that with the launch of the new energy vehicle "planning" in 2012, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will have a significant increase in the next few years.

However, experts at the conference told the reporter that the production and sales figures for less than 10,000 vehicles are far below the target, and even more severe is the fact that most of them are government procurement, and private car purchases are only 1/10.

As early as in 2009, four ministries and commissions launched the promotion project of “10 cities and 1,000 vehicles” for new energy vehicles. The plan is to develop 10 cities each year by providing financial subsidies in the form of financial subsidies. Each city will launch 1,000 The new energy vehicles will carry out demonstration operations and strive to make the nation's new energy vehicles reach 10% of the automotive market by 2012. As of now, the coverage cities have expanded from 13 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing to 25.

However, according to the “2011 China New Energy Bus Demonstration and Operational Survey Report” published by the First Electric Research Institute, it is shown that by October 2011, the nation’s 25 pilot cities will only complete about 38% of the new energy vehicle's promotion target. Experts said that due to the unsatisfactory performance of pilot cities, the country will not increase new pilot cities in 2012.

Battery Challenge New Energy Vehicles Core Components Power batteries have many technical and application problems such as high cost, high-grade materials relying on imports, short cycle life, low energy density, low design process level, and lack of testing equipment. This is also the new energy vehicle industrialization. The important reason for difficulties.

It is understood that at present, 50% of the major power battery products in China are exported, and in 2012, sales are expected to reach 4 billion US dollars. The top four domestic companies are Lishen, BYD, BAK, and ATL, which have a relatively high degree of aggregation, accounting for 36% of the domestic share.

Peng Hongbing said that in the future, the lithium-ion battery market in the consumer sector can reach nearly US$30 billion, and the market for the power sector is also close to US$30 billion, and the energy storage capacity may be even greater. "The forecasting agency has more data, and we are more rational, probably between 80 billion and 100 billion US dollars."

Although the market cake is huge, the key technology of the battery failed to break through, and the low energy density directly led to a fatal injury to the new energy vehicle's short range. It is widely believed in the academic community that new energy vehicles can be industrialized on a large scale when the energy density of a power battery reaches 250-350 Wh/kg. At present, the power battery energy density of various domestic technology routes is only about 100 Wh/kg.

“Some enterprises are eager for quick profits and are pursuing short-term profits. They are not sufficiently deep in their research; others include the level of key materials, equipment, etc., especially in relation to the power battery industry. Safety, reliability, etc. have not yet been implemented. More in-depth study. In addition, the standard detection system is currently relatively disordered." Peng Hongbing said.

The chaos industry generally believes that breakthroughs in power battery technology will take at least 5-10 years. At present, the private consumption market environment is not yet mature. When selecting the technology route during the transitional period, battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are each fighting to develop on their own, while the market mainly depends on the policy of “eating”.

Li Yao, general manager of Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. told this reporter: “Technological choices are not so absolutely important, and domestic companies are still unanimously inclined to make lithium batteries.”

Although battery technology requires revolutionary innovations, the domestic battery industry has seen a chaos of overcapacity and the backdoor concept of speculation. "The actual profit of the battery is very small. The investment of cell phone batteries is generally several hundred million to more than one billion yuan, but now it is less than 2 billion yuan to sell electric vehicle batteries. This is a market environment. Large-scale investment), production capacity can not be left over?" Henan Huanyu Group Chairman Li Middle East told this reporter.

“Impression is a problem in the corporate world, and the government and the academic community also have this problem.” Chen Quanshi, chairman of the Electric Vehicles Branch of the China Automotive Engineering Society, was blunt.

Fang Jianhua, general manager of Hefei Guoxuan High-tech Power Energy Co., Ltd., said: “When Hefei Bus started in early 2011, it had to do 300 pure electric buses. However, due to the lack of government plans, this plan was not implemented at all. How do companies survive? So we are looking forward to the early release of this "plan."