At present, Germany's nuclear power generation accounts for 23% of the country's total power generation, while renewable energy power generation accounts for only 17%. The closure of all reactors for renewable energy development may reach as much as US$200 billion.
Affected by the earthquake, all nuclear power plants in Japan will be shut down. In addition, the nuclear crisis in Fukushima will cause Japan to lose nearly one-third of its electricity supply. Due to Japan’s massive destruction of nuclear power during the earthquake, post-disaster reconstruction and alternative nuclear energy may increase demand for crude oil. Under such circumstances, the most realistic strategy is to increase the import of traditional energy in the future and make up for the gap in nuclear power.
After abandoning nuclear energy, renewable energy is far from water and it is hard to understand thirst. The excessive dependence of the world's energy on petroleum and coal will become increasingly unbalanced. Where is the way out?
Overwhelmed by oil
“Japan is currently the world’s third-largest oil consumer after the United States and China. There is a shortage of traditional energy in Japan. The domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal is almost negligible. There is only some crude oil near Hokkaido and the other 99%. All need to be imported.†said Zhu Wei, Deputy Director of Information and Marketing Department of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association.
In fact, oil consumption accounts for 42.6% of Japan’s primary energy consumption. If the reconstruction process increases the demand for oil, it will inevitably have an impact on the international oil price if the supply declines and demand increases.
At the same time, Libya will crack down on international crude oil prices.
On March 19th, the multinational forces of France, Britain, and the United States joined forces to start cracking down on Libya, which has caused crude oil exports to close. As the world’s twelfth largest oil producer and North Africa’s largest oil producer, Libya’s normal oil production is 1.6 million barrels per day.
Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.'s energy analysis report pointed out that the political situation in Arab countries led by Libya continues to affect the nerves of the crude oil market. Short-term concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply are still difficult to dissipate. It is expected that oil prices may be in the future. During the week, the pace of rising crude oil will not stop and it will likely usher in a new round of continued rise.
On the 23rd, the New York Mercantile Exchange's May light sweet crude oil futures price rose 78 cents to close at 105.75 US dollars a barrel, or 0.7%, the highest closing price since September 26, 2008; intraday It hit $106.03 per barrel, setting the highest intraday price since March 7. In the past six trading days, New York crude oil futures prices have risen for five consecutive trading days.
Wu Hao analyst of CSC Securities believes that according to the IEA's global energy outlook for the next 25 years, global crude oil production may stabilize at a daily output of 68-69 million barrels, and it will no longer be able to reach an average daily 70 million barrels per day. Peak production. Whether it is due to the reduction of capital expenditures in the financial crisis or the realization of the oil peak forecast, there is a strong rigidity in the decline in production volume.
At the same time, the bottleneck of supply actually determines the rising trend of crude oil prices; even if there is no supply shock, the price of oil may also be in a relatively stable upward trend; the emergence of supply shocks will definitely strengthen the “oil peakâ€. The trend of supply determines the rising trend of oil prices.
A report released by JP Morgan said that the basic expectation of the average price of oil in the second quarter is still US$105 per barrel. Some even said that it is not ruled out that the price of oil in the short term exceeds the peak achieved in 2008 and hit a record high.
Although the current international crude oil price has exceeded US$100 per barrel, there is another sound for the future price trend of crude oil. Gao Shixian, director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute, told this reporter that the Japan earthquake coupled with the nuclear crisis will make it difficult for a long time to come, and it will also cause short-term oil prices and the international economy. Impact, however, it will not hinder the general trend of global economic recovery.
Can only rely on solar energy
In the case of limited reserves of traditional energy such as oil and coal, around the world are trying to find clean and efficient new energy sources to replace the depletion of traditional energy sources.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) research on international power demand from 2000 to 2030, the annual average growth rate of total power generation from renewable energy sources will be the fastest, and the annual growth rate of non-water renewable energy power generation will reach 6 %.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese government will invest 4 trillion yuan to support the development of nine industries such as aerospace technology, new energy, new materials, information technology, biotechnology, energy-saving technologies, and environmental protection technologies. The industry generally believes that this indicates that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the development of the new energy industry will receive more support from fiscal and taxation policies, and usher in a new opportunity for accelerating development.
Meng Xianzhe, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said in an interview with this reporter that “China’s non-fossil energy will reach 15% of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 40% compared to 2005 in 2020.†The ultimate goal of % is to develop renewable energy. Whoever can be the protagonist of future new energy will be divided according to the time of development."
“Currently, in 2020-2030, the development of hydropower is the first priority of renewable energy, followed by wind energy such as non-water renewable energy. According to the latest development plan, by 2015, the water energy will reach 300 million. More kilowatts, which is now nearly 200 million kilowatts, means that the installed capacity of wind power will reach more than 100 million kilowatts during the "12th Five-Year Plan."
“From a long-term perspective, solar energy is the most important and the most promising alternative energy source.†Meng Xianzhe emphasized that “by 2030-2040, when the first two resources are all developed, they can only rely on solar energy. In terms of development potential, solar energy will be the ultimate alternative energy source."
"In the process, nuclear energy can not be ignored. Nuclear energy was once the hope of energy independence for many countries. Unfortunately, this hope was overshadowed by the lingering shadow of the Japanese nuclear crisis and gave people a warning. For China to develop, we must develop it on the premise of ensuring safety."
Renewable energy shows a strong growth trend in power generation, heating, refrigeration and transportation fuels. Data show that in the past 10 years, grid-connected solar photovoltaic power generation capacity has increased by an average of 60% annually and has increased 100-fold since 2000. In the past five years, other renewable energy technologies have also been showing rapid growth. Solar water heaters have an average annual growth of 19% in installed capacity.
In Hefei, Anhui, the new energy industry in Hefei Xinzhan District will focus on building solar energy photovoltaics as the core of the industrial agglomeration area. By the end of the “Twelfth Five-year Planâ€, the total output value of the new energy industry in the city will reach 200 billion yuan. In northeast Liaoning, Jinzhou established the Photovoltaic Industry Bureau in order to create the photovoltaic industry capital. To set up such a special bureau for an industry, it shows the government's emphasis on photovoltaics and new energy.
Meng Xianyi also stated that the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will take greater steps and move toward broader areas. The energy industry as an important foundation will undoubtedly play a pivotal role. The rapid increase in current energy demand and the rapid increase in energy-saving emission reduction targets are not only the dual pressures of economic and social development, but also a huge driving force for the development of new energy.
Industry analysts pointed out that as the country's support for strategic emerging industries continues to expand, as the core of new energy wind power, photovoltaic, biomass and other sectors will usher in greater development. At present, changing the mode of economic development, developing a green economy, and achieving low-carbon development have become the country's long-term strategic goals and initiatives.
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