What kind of turmoil will the commercial vehicle market face? Can 2009 get better? Is this all an opportunity or a challenge? How to deal with domestic parts and components companies? Government officials, experts, scholars, and senior executives of many companies gathered to discuss the crisis response. Speakers included: Xu Changming, Director of the Economic Information Center of the National Information Center; Gao Lizhong, Deputy General Manager of the Construction Vehicle Division of Dongfeng Motor Corporation; Shi Qiang, Deputy General Manager of Beijing Futian Automotive Marketing; Luo Jinling, Editor-in-Chief of Auto & Accessories; Hu Xiong, Vice President of the Company Limited, Zhang Jing, former Director of the Market Regulation Department of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, and Wang Yuanhong, Director of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center.
Xu Changming: The evolution of the pattern of transnational companies has seriously affected the domestic situation
The impact of the US financial crisis on China’s economy is mainly reflected in exports. The most influential places are the eastern coastal areas, where the industrial growth rate this year is significantly lower than in the central and western regions. From the east to the middle, and then to the west, the impact diminishes.
The impact of China's self-owned brands on commercial vehicles is even greater than that of developed countries in Europe, the United States, and Japan. Because China’s auto manufacturers are much more dispersed than Europe and the United States, compared with the monopoly markets of four or five foreign companies, China currently has about 50 passenger cars. , Commercial vehicles more than 100 companies. This small-scale enterprise in the decentralized state has relatively weak anti-punching capacity, so the industrial characteristics will determine that China will suffer even greater impact.
At the same time, the evolution of transnational corporations in the international market will also affect the domestic market. I think that after the financial crisis, Japanese companies in the international market will be stronger, and American companies may become weaker. Because all multinational corporations are currently spending 100% of their energy in domestic business, changes in the international community will certainly be reflected in the country. In addition, multinational corporations are generally increasing investment, and the world has taken the Chinese market as a life-saving straw and placed hopes for next year's development on the Chinese economy. As a result, in such an unfavorable situation, the efforts of multinational companies in China's production capacity, products, and marketing will be greater than ever before.
Gao Lizhong: The lack of confidence between the supply and demand sides
In the north, the impact of the Beijing Olympics in the second half of the year cannot be ignored. Around Hebei, Shaanxi, Beijing and Tianjin, almost no cars were sold from May to August due to Olympic safety issues. When approaching the Olympics, the National II transport vehicle cannot enter Beijing. It must transit in Langfang. It needs 500 yuan for a ton. The goods have no such value, and Beijing can't enter. This has a great impact on the entire logistics industry.
The end of the Olympics, Baoding, Langfang area, the State III car to sell, the State II car can not sell. why? Because Beijing can not enter the five rings. The role of the banner of Beijing has affected the use environment and requirements of the entire vehicle. It has promoted the implementation of the State III policy, but the requirement is too high, and the support is also unprecedented in the country.
In the south, the global financial turmoil has had a very negative impact on the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta in China. Dongguan closed down 1,600 companies from January to June, causing more than 3 million people to lose their jobs. I felt very deeply in Wuhan. In the past few months, people haven’t worked and the thief has grown up. Dongguan and Shunde sold 100 to 200 vehicles a month, but now only 50 to 60 vehicles are sold in one month, and half of them are not.
Many experts have analyzed the macroeconomic situation. It is expected that the macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter will have a turn for the better. However, I feel that the fourth quarter will not work. From the microscopic point of view, Dongfeng Motor has a large number of supporting plants. Now it has started price negotiation. The automaker has lowered the price because of the current steel prices falling to 4,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan/ton, while the spare parts manufacturers are priced at 6,000 yuan because of inventory prices. 7000 yuan / ton and even more sad days. Last month I visited Futian and felt that everyone was more cautious about the development situation next year.
Consumer confidence is not enough and business confidence is not enough. Sales work will be difficult to carry out next year. The overall feeling is not optimistic about next year.
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Shi Qiang: Excavating the Potential of Aftermarket Market
From the perspective of the service industry, there are several directions in the development of China's medium- and heavy-duty truck market. The first is the horizontal integration of industries, which is the use of brands and the realization of chain operations, and horizontal development.
The second is the vertical integration of industries, that is, the service industry is not just a maintenance industry, but a full range of vertical services from maintenance, maintenance, repairs, parts supply, sales, used cars, and financial insurance.
The third is the continuous development of new service businesses. Now many 4S stores sell cars just to sell the car and get more customers, but the profit of selling cars is very low. Enterprises can establish new businesses, such as logistics, help users to apply for cards, help users to use insurance, used cars. Transaction and sales value-added services achieve high profits.
The fourth is that new technologies are widely used, especially electronic technologies. With the upgrading of environmental protection and the improvement of technology, new technologies will be widely used in the automotive maintenance industry.
The fifth is the highlight of the position and role of accessories in sales. At present, one of the problems that restricts the development of the maintenance industry in China is fittings. This kind of restriction on customer satisfaction is also very obvious.
Luo Jinling: Integrating Superior Resources and Cooperation with Multinational Companies
At present, China's only spare parts companies can change the traditional business ideas, business models and business models, and take the road of combining sales and maintenance. For the powerful, business-scale and competent distributors, it is necessary to give full play to their channel advantages, network advantages, and brand advantages. Therefore, distributors should take the initiative to provide the key to provide national III, IV emission standards and other chassis. Afterwards, the after-sales service center of parts suppliers or OEMs is close to seeking a new business model and taking the road of sustainable development.
The factory's after-sales service center should also actively seek cooperation with local distributors with the advantage of the distribution network, thereby reducing the cost of their own professional repair stations and expanding the scope of services. These are all new opportunities. The challenges of the financial crisis also concern how to use the group advantages, organizational advantages, and scale advantages of the production and marketing associations to plan and organize active negotiations between competent and capable dealers and multinational companies and distributors. It is even possible to establish a business organization that integrates the production and sales of new business models. It is also possible to organize maintenance companies to join this model.
At the same time, the Federation can seize this opportunity to organize small distributors, such as organizing a joint-stock company, to use individual advantages, or site advantages, or accessories, or financial advantages, to form groups and brands with scale advantages. Commercial and professional repair stations cooperate to establish professional repair stations and other modes.
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Hu Xiong: This is a great opportunity to expect integration and development.
Many experts talked about the financial crisis. I would like to cheer on my colleagues in the automotive aftermarket industry. Will this financial crisis affect China's automobile aftermarket industry? From the current point of view, I think it will not affect.
Compared with foreign countries, the gap between China's electrical chain and the United States is not large, such as Gome, Suning, regardless of the number of stores, single store area, turnover or market value, basically with the United States two major electrical giant Best Buy and Circuit City no difference. The gap between auto parts chain and the United States is still very large. I analyze and contrast the U.S. market that China's auto parts chain market will be larger than the electrical chain market, which means that the industry still has a lot of room for development.
Not only that, but according to a survey conducted by a U.S. authoritative organization, the demand for the aftermarket in China in 2010 is about 200 billion yuan, and the profit prospects are considerable. At the same time, many experts also believe that the profit margin of the aftermarket is larger than the front end, and the price is not sensitive.
Therefore, I am suggesting that you can pay attention to the aftermarket. When the financial crisis and the industry are in recession, it is advisable for powerful companies to exercise internal strength. After practicing their internal strengths, the entire industry's business environment is a great opportunity for industry consolidation and development.
Zhang Jing: The Real Hard Time Hasn't Come
At the end of last year, China’s gross national product was 23 trillion yuan, and it had reached 20 trillion before the third quarter today, due to the financial “tsunami†effect, coupled with the worldwide Christmas and fourth-quarter Chinese New Year and Spring Festival consumption. The gross national product can maintain about 23 trillion yuan last year.
As a rule, 40% of this total value is China's domestic consumption, about 9 trillion. The key to the new situation now is that due to the financial "tsunami", foreign orders have been abolished and returned in large numbers, meaning that 30% to 40% of the 14 trillion yuan of goods must be sold domestically. In the past, it was "less gluttonous", but now it is "more glutinous, less porridge," and should be consumed by 1.3 billion people. It can be assumed that the pressure in the auto parts industry will be great.
Of course, because the share of the international market for commercial vehicle auto parts and accessories is not too large, the impact is more from domestic sources. As far as Hu Xiong speaks about some encouragement, I think that as senior executives of enterprises, we should also see that China’s truly difficult period has not yet fully arrived. Zhu Rongji once thought that the impact of economic fluctuations has a lag period, so the entire auto parts and post-market manufacturers should make full ideological preparations.
Wang Yuanhong: Prepare for the Winter
Judging from several factors affecting industrial production, for example, total demand will remain relatively stable in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter of this year, there will be two more working days than last year. Power supply is currently sufficient, the Olympic Games are over, export policy adjustments and other economies The policy is slightly relaxed. I expect the industrial production growth in the fourth quarter will be a little faster than in the third quarter, that is, the third quarter of this year may be a low point, and it will rebound in the fourth quarter.
Of course, most people predict that the situation in the first half of next year will remain unfavorable and will improve in the second half of the year. As a result, next year's exports may not be smooth. At the same time, as income has not risen, consumption will be relatively high and total social consumption will certainly be lower than this year. In fact, the three major demands will be low, so the economic growth next year will certainly be less than this year.
Faced with this complex situation at home and abroad, the Central Government has adopted some measures. However, because China is a huge economy, economic adjustment will not be effective soon, especially among the interest groups, a policy is very much introduced. Difficulty, such as real estate, especially when it involves multiple interests, may be a long time for the game, so the policy impact will be more limited. Therefore, everyone must be more fully prepared to survive the harsh winter. We hope that the time for this severe winter will be as short as possible.
Polypropylene (PP), as one of the five general plastics, is widely used in daily life.
Polypropylene is a plastic raw material with minimal density, and its appearance is colorless and translucent particles. As a food grade plastic, it is widely used in food packaging, such as foam plastic boxes, PP plastic cups, and so on. Polypropylene can be divided into five categories according to its main uses: PP injection molding, PP drawing, PP fiber, PP film, and PP pipe.
1. PP injection molding:
PP injection plastic is mainly used in small household appliances, toys, washing machines, auto parts, etc.
In recent years, the improvement of people's living standards and the implementation of China's second tire have led to a gradual increase in the demand for polypropylene injection molding in the downstream. Different injection molding varieties also have differences in their demand in the low and high seasons. For example, the demand for injection molding pots and barrels is relatively strong in the school season, while the demand for accessories and gifts is booming due to the impact of many festivals. In general, PP injection molding is relatively frequently used.
2. PP wire drawing:
Polypropylene wire drawing is mainly used in plastic woven products. The daily use of container bags, woven bags, food bags and transparent bags are all PP wire drawing products.
Since the implementation of domestic environmental protection in 2017, the demand for packaging of cement and building materials has been declining, and the plastic weaving industry has been greatly impacted. Accordingly, the PP plastic weaving market is under pressure. In the future, the proportion of PP plastic weaving in the overall use of polypropylene will continue to decline, and the plastic weaving industry will gradually expand into large packaging bags with high capacity, high quality or small packaging bags with low capacity and low content.
3. PP film:
Polypropylene film is generally divided into BOPP film, CPP film and IPP film. PP film is mainly used for food packaging.
Compared with PE packaging bags, PP film food packaging bags have better transparency, greater hardness and more high-end appearance. Downstream demand is mainly concentrated around festivals and holidays.
4. PP fiber:
Polypropylene fiber is a kind of fiber product made from polypropylene by melt spinning. It is mainly used in decoration, clothing and other fields. Since the implementation of the second child in 2011, the downstream wet wipes, diapers and other maternal and infant supplies have increased sharply, and the domestic fiber material has been in short supply.
According to data statistics, the global demand for fiber will continue to grow significantly, and the composite annual growth rate is expected to be 2.6% from 2017 to 2025. Therefore, the downstream demand for PP fiber will continue to grow in the later period.
5. PP pipe:
PP pipe material is mainly used in water supply and heating systems due to its non-toxic and high-temperature resistant properties. Compared with PE pipe material, PP pipe material has light weight, convenient transportation, good environmental protection performance and can be recycled.
PP Resin,Polypropylene,PP Granules,PP Plastic Granules
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