At present, the corn market in the main producing areas has gradually increased, but the corn acquisition policy that has a significant impact on the price of corn has not yet been announced.
On October 12, the reporter was informed that this year's corn storage and storage policy may be abolished, and the amount of subsidy for the purchase of corn from feed companies in the north sales area to the northeastern production areas may also be "halved" by half from last year's 70 yuan/ton. Reduced to 35 yuan / ton. This means that this year's corn prices may be more determined by the market.
During the year, corn storage will be cancelled or cancelled. Data from the National Grain Administration shows that in 2008 and 2009, the total amount of temporary storage corn that the country acquired in the four provinces of the Northeast exceeded 36 million tons, which is more than 20% of the annual output.
Although the policy's support for food prices has been strengthened in recent years, sources said: “This year China Temporary Grain is temporarily not allowed to purchase temporary storage corn and trade corn, and only the acquisition of rotating grain is allowed, and the acquisition time and purchase price of the rotation grain are also It must also be set by the government."
Since the beginning of this year, the price of corn has been rising all the way, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the call for the cancellation of corn temporary reserves has continued. In June, the price of wheat rose at a fast rate, and the country had also called for a stopover in midway.
According to Xi Yinsheng, a researcher at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, due to the high price of corn this year, it is difficult to determine the purchase price of the temporary reserve. If it is set at 0.8 yuan/kg, it is a little higher than last year's 0.74~0.76 yuan/kg, but it is still a lot lower than the market price; if it is set at 0.85 yuan/kg, on the one hand the policy cost is too high, on the other hand Will push up inflation expectations.
From the current acquisition situation, the new season corn prices generally opened higher. In October, the listed purchase prices in Henan and Anhui were mostly more than 0.95 yuan/kg, which was 0.1 yuan more than that of last year, and the listed price of some processing enterprises in the main production area of ​​Jilin has also reached 0.88 yuan/kg.
Zhang Zhixian, an analyst of China Food Network, said that frequent natural disasters this year increased farmers' grain production costs. Farmers reluctant to sell their goods will resist the decline in corn prices. Under the background of price increases in the entire commodity market, domestic corn prices may fall sharply. Almost no sex.
In addition to the cancellation of storage during the year, the above sources also revealed that the subsidies for southern corn farming companies to purchase corn in northeastern production areas will also be halved. This will, to some extent, weaken the enthusiasm of multiple entities to “grab the grain†and slow down more or less. Farmers' expectations of rising corn prices.
Not to change domestic production and consumption In 2009, the number of China's temporary reserves of corn was not much, but due to the large number of carry-over stocks in the previous year, it guaranteed that the auction of the State Reserve Bank of Corn continued to the present, and the current temporary reserves of corn knots. Transfer stocks have been less.
If China’s grain reserves are only allowed to purchase rotating grain this year, will it cause market concerns about insufficient corn reserves and difficult market adjustments?
In this regard, Xi Yinsheng pointed out that the reserve grain is mainly divided into three parts: temporary reserves, state-owned enterprises' commercial stocks, and central and local reserves that play a strategic role. Among them, the amount of temporary reserves is adjusted according to changes in production and supply and demand in the current year.
"In the past two years, the state has more reserves and has greater interference with the market. Therefore, it is understandable to cancel purchasing and storage this year. Lincang has always been a flexible policy. If the price of corn falls sharply in the future, it will not rule out another purchase and storage. It's possible.†Xi Yinsheng believes that as long as corn is not exported in large quantities, it will be stored in the society even if it is not in the hands of the state. It will not change domestic production and consumption because of the cancellation of the policy of purchasing and storage this year.
Zhang Zhixian analyzed that if the purchase of temporary reserves is cancelled, the impact of international corn market prices on the domestic corn market will be further strengthened. "As soon as the price of corn has risen sharply in the later period, the country will more and more satisfy the market supply through the central reserves and the placement of corn reserves at all levels."
Earlier, Xie Yang, deputy minister of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with CCTV that the quantity of national strategic reserve grain is confidential and cannot be made public.
On October 12, the reporter was informed that this year's corn storage and storage policy may be abolished, and the amount of subsidy for the purchase of corn from feed companies in the north sales area to the northeastern production areas may also be "halved" by half from last year's 70 yuan/ton. Reduced to 35 yuan / ton. This means that this year's corn prices may be more determined by the market.
During the year, corn storage will be cancelled or cancelled. Data from the National Grain Administration shows that in 2008 and 2009, the total amount of temporary storage corn that the country acquired in the four provinces of the Northeast exceeded 36 million tons, which is more than 20% of the annual output.
Although the policy's support for food prices has been strengthened in recent years, sources said: “This year China Temporary Grain is temporarily not allowed to purchase temporary storage corn and trade corn, and only the acquisition of rotating grain is allowed, and the acquisition time and purchase price of the rotation grain are also It must also be set by the government."
Since the beginning of this year, the price of corn has been rising all the way, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the call for the cancellation of corn temporary reserves has continued. In June, the price of wheat rose at a fast rate, and the country had also called for a stopover in midway.
According to Xi Yinsheng, a researcher at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, due to the high price of corn this year, it is difficult to determine the purchase price of the temporary reserve. If it is set at 0.8 yuan/kg, it is a little higher than last year's 0.74~0.76 yuan/kg, but it is still a lot lower than the market price; if it is set at 0.85 yuan/kg, on the one hand the policy cost is too high, on the other hand Will push up inflation expectations.
From the current acquisition situation, the new season corn prices generally opened higher. In October, the listed purchase prices in Henan and Anhui were mostly more than 0.95 yuan/kg, which was 0.1 yuan more than that of last year, and the listed price of some processing enterprises in the main production area of ​​Jilin has also reached 0.88 yuan/kg.
Zhang Zhixian, an analyst of China Food Network, said that frequent natural disasters this year increased farmers' grain production costs. Farmers reluctant to sell their goods will resist the decline in corn prices. Under the background of price increases in the entire commodity market, domestic corn prices may fall sharply. Almost no sex.
In addition to the cancellation of storage during the year, the above sources also revealed that the subsidies for southern corn farming companies to purchase corn in northeastern production areas will also be halved. This will, to some extent, weaken the enthusiasm of multiple entities to “grab the grain†and slow down more or less. Farmers' expectations of rising corn prices.
Not to change domestic production and consumption In 2009, the number of China's temporary reserves of corn was not much, but due to the large number of carry-over stocks in the previous year, it guaranteed that the auction of the State Reserve Bank of Corn continued to the present, and the current temporary reserves of corn knots. Transfer stocks have been less.
If China’s grain reserves are only allowed to purchase rotating grain this year, will it cause market concerns about insufficient corn reserves and difficult market adjustments?
In this regard, Xi Yinsheng pointed out that the reserve grain is mainly divided into three parts: temporary reserves, state-owned enterprises' commercial stocks, and central and local reserves that play a strategic role. Among them, the amount of temporary reserves is adjusted according to changes in production and supply and demand in the current year.
"In the past two years, the state has more reserves and has greater interference with the market. Therefore, it is understandable to cancel purchasing and storage this year. Lincang has always been a flexible policy. If the price of corn falls sharply in the future, it will not rule out another purchase and storage. It's possible.†Xi Yinsheng believes that as long as corn is not exported in large quantities, it will be stored in the society even if it is not in the hands of the state. It will not change domestic production and consumption because of the cancellation of the policy of purchasing and storage this year.
Zhang Zhixian analyzed that if the purchase of temporary reserves is cancelled, the impact of international corn market prices on the domestic corn market will be further strengthened. "As soon as the price of corn has risen sharply in the later period, the country will more and more satisfy the market supply through the central reserves and the placement of corn reserves at all levels."
Earlier, Xie Yang, deputy minister of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with CCTV that the quantity of national strategic reserve grain is confidential and cannot be made public.
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