Automotive industry: The impact of market recession on parts companies

As the overall economy is in a period of apparent decline, it is difficult to expect a significant rebound in car sales, both logically and historically. The layoffs and pay cuts in the real economy and the rapid and dramatic shrinkage of financial assets have a bearing on the residents’ real income and expected income. The huge decline in sales in recent months is undoubtedly the best evidence.

After the financial crisis hit the U.S. mortgage market, it has recently begun to spread into credit card and auto loans. With high penetration rate of auto consumer credit in Europe and the United States and low actual savings of residents, once financial institutions begin to shrink auto credit or significantly increase the conditions for auto loans, the impact on European and American auto markets will be unpredictable.

Fluctuations in the overseas auto market will have a significant impact on China's auto parts exports. Since 2000, the growth rate of China's auto parts exports has been highly consistent with the growth of overseas auto production.

The US auto industry has always taken a global sourcing strategy, which occupies a large share of the global auto parts import market and also accounts for 20% of China’s auto export volume. It is believed that once a bankruptcy or several bankruptcies occur, it will have a major impact on the export of parts and components in China.

From the aspects of raw materials, manpower, capital, logistics costs and exchange rates, China still has a small advantage in the competition of low-cost elements. The decline of the overseas auto market will undoubtedly adversely affect the export business of China's auto parts companies in the short term, but it is believed that as the vehicle manufacturers have to increase the purchase of low-cost parts, the degree of impact will be less than that of the auto market. The degree of decline, and if we can grasp the opportunity to expand the company's share in the global market, or to the advantage of the disadvantaged, once the global auto industry recovers will achieve beyond the expected development.